Forecast for waste production in Bavaria
Working on behalf of the Bavarian State Environmental Agency ("Bayerischen Landesamt für Umwelt" - BLfU), bifa drew up a forecast of the expected quantities of the most important wastes in Bavaria from the view of services of general public interest. The forecasts are based on previously defined scenarios and give the waste quantities expected in 2010 and 2016.
bifa predicts that the total quantity of residual wastes (household/bulky waste and commercial waste similar to household waste) disposed of by the towns, cities and administrative (rural) districts will remain virtually constant until 2010 or rather will fall only slightly up to 2016.
The significant reduction in bulky (household) waste and commercial wastes has little overall effect against the background of virtually constant household waste quantities. Greater changes only result in the hypothetical liberalisation scenario. Due to the growth in quantity terms of the most relevant material fractions paper, board and cardboard packaging (PPK), green (garden) waste and biowaste compared to 2004, the sum of the materials collected from households as independent fractions will increase by 4.3 % by 2010 and by 5.5 % by 2016. These figures assume that the current obligations to make wastes available remain unchanged during the forecast period.
A detailed description of the project is given in bifa-Text No. 33.
(available in German only)