Waste generation in Bavaria - forecasts for 2016 and 2023
Subject of forecasts
The main subject of the forecasts is the waste management changes to be expected during the respective periods, which are affected by societal, ecological, economic and technical variables. Particular attention was paid to the relevant and difficult to estimate factors, which are the result of existing and expected changes to standards or the policy framework during the forecast period.
Scenarios for waste
Taking into account the potential changes of relevant influencing factors, scenarios were drawn up to forecast possible effects on quantity flows and quantity corridors. In order to comment on possible generation of municipal waste, a maximum quantity and a minimum quantity scenario was formed. An important difference between these two scenarios is above all the possibility of further developments in the German recycling law ("Kreislaufwirtschaftsgesetz" KrWG). Developments towards further "liberalisation" of the waste industry or maintaining the status quo under the overall management of the public service or "(re-)municipalisation" are all feasible.
The maximum scenario for total residual waste generation, in line with the forecasts for the subfractions, is characterised by the trend and basic forecast of a slightly decreasing quantity for total residual waste over the years. The forecast and significant reduction in the minimum scenario is characterised by the individual domestic and business waste fraction and reduction in quantity through increased skimming off of recyclable materials (in the largest private marked development due to an additional private recyclable materials bin) and extending mandatory deposits for disposable drinks packaging to fruit juices and "Nektars" (fruit juice drinks with 25-50% fruit juice content) as well as diet drinks.
The forecast recyclables quantity from households in the maximum scenario is characterised by the trend and basic forecast of an increasing quantity over a longer period and the effect of extending separate collection of recyclables through the obligations in the recycling law (KrWG). The minimum scenario shows a reduction in recyclables quantities due to the introduction of a recyclables bin or expanding commercial collections and the special influencing factor of the decline in print media in paper, paperboard and cardboard (PPK).
bifa Text No. 63 Waste generation in Bavaria –forecast for 2016 and 2023 ("Abfallaufkommen in Bayern – Prognose 2016 und 2023") can be purchased from www.bifa.de.